Human delayed mortality can be predicted using olfactory impairment

Olfactory impairment in humans was measured by error rate in olfaction tests. Increasing number of errors in olfaction tests were related to increasing 5-year mortality rates in a logistic regression (PLoS ONE). 

The human logistic relationship between olfactory impairment and 5-year delayed mortality is a powerful method for predicting delayed mortality and is similar to other animal RAMP relationships between reflex impairment, injury, and delayed mortality. Olfactory impairment can be easily measured in human and animal clinical settings and can easily and automatically be measured in aquaculture contexts by analysis of animal distributions and activity in rearing facilities. Given the fundamental nature of olfaction, one would expect the relationship between olfactory impairment and delayed mortality to be generally present among animal phyla and this can be tested in clinical and field settings.

Pinto et al. 2014 state, “We are the first to show that olfactory dysfunction is a strong predictor of 5-year mortality in a nationally representative sample of older adults. Olfactory dysfunction was an independent risk factor for death, stronger than several common causes of death, such as heart failure, lung disease and cancer, indicating that this evolutionarily ancient special sense may signal a key mechanism that affects human longevity. This effect is large enough to identify those at a higher risk of death even after taking account of other factors, yielding a 2.4 fold increase in the average probability of death among those already at high risk (Figure 3B). Even among those near the median risk, anosmia increases the average probability of death from 0.09 (for normal smellers) to 0.25. Thus, from a clinical point of view, assessment of olfactory function would enhance existing tools and strategies to identify those patients at high risk of mortality.”

(PLoS ONE)

The human study controlled for the mortality effects of age, gender, socioeconomic status, and race. Additionally, “We excluded several possibilities that might have explained these striking results. Adjusting for nutrition had little impact on the relationship between olfactory dysfunction and death. Similarly, accounting for cognition and neurodegenerative disease and frailty also failed to mediate the observed effects. Mental health, smoking, and alcohol abuse also did not explain our findings. Risk factors for olfactory loss (male gender, lower socioeconomic status, BMI) were included in our analyses, and though they replicated prior work [41], did not affect our results.” Note that the study did not control for effects of possible episodic exposure to toxins or injury that may result in temporary or permanent olfactory impairment not related to death.

Olfactory response is an involuntary response to a stimulus, and may be considered a reflex action. In the human study, presence or absence of smell detection for rose, leather, orange, fish, and peppermint were summed and related to delayed mortality. Olfactory responses to various substances can be scored as present or absent and summed to predict delayed mortality. In the same way, the RAMP method is an example of presence-absence scoring with summation of reflex impairment and injury scores to predict delayed mortality.  Measuring and summing whole animal responses, i.e., olfaction, reflex actions, and injury to stimuli is a powerful method for observing the effects of stressors and aging on delayed mortality.   

“We believe olfaction is the canary in the coal mine of human health, not that its decline directly causes death. Olfactory dysfunction is a harbinger of either fundamental mechanisms of aging, environmental exposure, or interactions between the two. Unique among the senses, the olfactory system depends on stem cell turnover, and thus may serve as an indicator of deterioration in age-related regenerative capacity more broadly or as a marker of physiologic repair function [13].”

Clearly, measurement and summation of presence-absence for whole animal involuntary characteristics (olfaction, reflex actions, and injury) is a powerful way to predict delayed mortality in humans and other animals.